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Is another US recession just around the corner?

recession and growthrates

Dave Altig points out that:

[…] there has been a pretty reliable relationship between sustained bouts of sub-2 percent growth and U.S. recessions (indicated by the gray shaded areas). In fact, over the entire post-World War II era, periods in which year-over-year real GDP growth below 2 percent have been almost always associated with downturns in the economy.


Africa’s new largest countries

Africa has a new largest country: Algeria.
And Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank definition) also has a new largest country: DR Congo.

North Sudan lost about one third of its territory. There are about 1.6 million sq km left.
So now it seems to be number four in Africa and number two in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of size of the territory.

here (of course, not updated yet)

Facts and figures – South Sudan

(Source BBC:)

* Population: 7.5-9.7 million
* Size: 619,745 sq km (239,285 sq miles), larger than Spain and Portugal combined
* Major languages: English, Arabic (both official), Juba Arabic, Dinka
* Religion: Traditional and a Christian minority
* Main export: Oil

Happy Birthday South Sudan!

Some media reactions:



daily nation kenya

“A Greek default could precipitate defaults in other euro-area countries”

EU banks

This is in line with previous observations.

Fitch downgrades Greece…

… and David Oakley and Neil Dennis from FT are very worried about it.
However, we have not yet reached the level of 10 year bond rate that we had in April. In April we had 16.18 percent. Now we have a little less.

Hopeful comments on economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Economist’s audio article:

A more hopeful continent

I believe this is mainly driven by high capital inflows and “good governance”.